In this course—see syllabus and course requirements—you will learn the basic concepts of probability theory and then apply probability to examine a research question on a topic of your choice. The course is inspired by the website www.rootclaim.com.
The course is divided in three parts. Part 1 examines how to formulate a research question, identify hypotheses and collect evidence. Part 2 turns to probability theory as a tool to assess the strength of the evidence supporting a hypothesis. Part 3 applies probability theory to answering a research question of your choice.
PART 1 – QUESTIONS, EVIDENCE, HYPOTHESES
week 1: Jan 29 & Jan 31 – Introduction [slides]
week 2: Feb 5 and Feb 7 – Asking questions [slides]
week 3 &4: Feb 14 and Feb 21 – Identifying hypotheses
No class on Feb 12 & Feb 19
Peterson/Newman on gender pay gap [video]
week 5 : Feb 26 & Feb 28 – Collecting evidence
Articles on men v. women and gender pay gap [pdf]
week 6: Mar 5 & Mar 7 – Evidence and hypotheses
PART 2 – PROBABILITY
week 7: Mar 12 & Mar 14 – Basics of probability [pdf]
week 8: Mar 19 & Mar 21 – Conditional probability [pdf]
week 9: Mar 26 & Mar 28 – Review
Exam #1 on March 26
week 10: No class on Apr 2 & Apr 4 – Spring break
week 11: Apr 9 & Apr 11 – Bayes’ theorem [link, link]
week 12: Apr 16 & Apr 18 – Review
Exam #2 due April 23 at the beginning of class
PART 3 – APPLYING PROBABILITY
week 13: Apr 23 & Apr 25 – Prior probabilities
NB: assignment STAGE 4 [pdf] due April 30
please also bring a hard copy to class
week 14: Apr 30 & May 2 – Guest lecture
Benjamin Resnick from Rootclaim will be a guest lecturer
week 15: May 7 & May 9 – Applying Bayes’ theorem
NB: assignment STAGE 5 [pdf] due May 9
Download GENIE (if you use Mac, you’ll also need PlayOnMac; see video)
week 16: May 14 & May 16 – Students’ presentations
NB: assignment STAGE 6 [pdf] due May 14
Critical Reasoning 